February 2017 GDP Forecast | A disappointing last quarter of 2016 drives grimmer growth predictions

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20 February 2017

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecast of the real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017 now stands at 1.7% - down from 3.5% in January.
We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 2.5% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 3.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.

Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 2.7% real GDP growth in 2017. However, based on the evidence so far, even the best-case scenario of the GDP forecast is significantly lower than the government’s growth predictions (4% annual growth in 2017).

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