March 2017 GDP Forecast | Rapidly growing trade is behind the optimistic GDP growth forecast

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20 March 2017

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecast of the real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017 now stands at 3.2% - down from 3.5% in January. The first estimate of the second-quarter growth forecast now stands at 4.4%.
We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.

Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 4.3% real GDP growth. Thus, the Georgian government’s target of the real GDP growth (4%) does not seem to be overambitious, as it can be reached even in the worst-case scenario.

Tags: #index, #gdp forecast, #gdp, #economic growth, #trade,

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