March 2018 GDP Forecast | Deja-vu: will growth in 2018 look similar to 2017? The economy might still surprise us…

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27 March 2018

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP – g growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2018. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2017. Estimated growth now stands at 5.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the previously estimated average growth rate for Q4. As a result, the real GDP growth for 2017 reached 5.0%.

ISET-PI’s forecast of the real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2018 stands at 4.1% - up from 3.4% in February. The first estimate of the second-quarter growth forecast now stands at 5.1%.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2018 to be 4.6% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.8% real GDP growth. This suggests that in 2018, GDP growth will be largely similar to that of 2017. However, the economy might still surprise us as the year progresses. Keep in mind that early in 2017, the ISET-PI forecast predicted 5.1% real growth only in the best-case scenario. As it turned out, the best-case scenario was the one closest to reality.

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