May 2018 GDP Forecast | Growth forecasts for 2018 inch upward due to positive external trends, higher government expenditure on capital
22 May 2018

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2018. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2018. The Q1 growth stands at 5.2 percent, which is 1.1 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 stands at 5.9 percent - up from 5.1 percent in April.

Based on March’s data, we expect annual growth in 2018 to be 5.4 percent in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 6.4 percent in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 5.7 percent real GDP growth in 2018.

The National Bank of Georgia has revised its real GDP growth forecast upward to 4.8 percent in 2018, from 4.5 percent in February. The upward revision was explained by positive trends in the external sector and increased government capital spending, which is expected to improve consumption and investment spending, and further contribute to growth.