May 2019 GDP Forecast | Georgian economy exhibits relatively strong growth at the start of the year. Inflation remains low, while short-term consumer credit declines following tougher lending
13 May 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2019. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019. The Q1 growth stands at 4.7%, which is only 0.4 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019 stands at 4.7% - up from 4.6% in April.

Based on March data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.6% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.9% real GDP growth in 2019.

According to the recent Monetary Policy Report (May 2019), the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) forecast of real GDP growth remained unchanged at 5% in 2019. According to NBG, annual real GDP growth this year will be driven by the improved trade balance, and increased consumption and investment spending supported by capital expenditures of the government and moderate growth of loans.