October 2019 GDP Forecast | August data keeps growth forecast steady, but downward correction looms

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21 October 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2019. The highlights of this month’s release are as follows:

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2019 remains at 7.1%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. While the third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at 5.5%.

Geostat recently published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for August, which currently stands at 5.8%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first eight months of 2019 was reduced to 5%.

Based on the data from August, annual growth in 2019 is expected to be 5.5%. Although the growth forecast remains stable, we expect a downward correction of annual GDP growth towards the end of the year because we have not fully taken into consideration impeded tourist inflows, deteriorated foreign direct investments, and the increased risk of negative external shocks.

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