February 2020 GDP Forecast | Excess inflation drags down GDP forecast for 2020. Growth is helped by strong exports, remittances and tourism numbers from December
28 February 2020

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

GeoStat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 5.3%, which is 0.7 percentage points above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth for 2019 amounted to 5.2%.

The real GDP growth rate reached 5.1% year-on-year for January 2020.

ISET-PI’s forecast for the first quarter of 2020 now stands at 4.9%—up from 4.3% in January. The second quarter growth forecast currently stands at 5.6%.

Based on the data from December, we expect annual growth in 2020 to be 5.0% in the worst-case scenario, and 6.1% in the best-case or the average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 5.4% increase in real GDP.