April 2022 | CCI: Trend reversal
24 May 2022

CCI decreases again. After the CCI’s quick comeback in March, the index failed to continue the upward trend and fell again after February’s shock; the index decreased by 2.9 index points – from -31.5 in March to -34.4 in April. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index contributed to the decrease, with the Present Situation Index dropping by 2.9 index points and the Expectations Index by 3 points (Chart 1).

The most notable contributor to this decline is how people currently feel about making major household purchases, which decreased by 12 index points. The second factor was revealed to be worsened expectations over prices (a decline of 11 index points). In addition, expectations of change in the country’s general economic situation also deteriorated by 8 points. Lastly, consumers’ current ability to save fell by 8 points and reached its lowest ebb since April 2021, which highlights that, for the majority of people, their current inflow of money is insufficient for making ends meet. All of these factors could be linked to high inflationary trends in Georgia and uncertainty in those sectors that are influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The gap between the sentiments of Tbilisians and residents from the rest of Georgia is still widening. Confidence in Tbilisi has slightly decreased, by 0.8 index points, while for the rest of the country, the decrease is 5.6 points. Despite the fact that individuals outside the capital have more positive future expectations than Tbilisians, there is a drastic difference in perceptions of the current situation – which remain much lower in the regions. The largest difference derives from how those in Tbilisi and from the rest of Georgia feel about the current changes in price, which is taking a greater toll on people living outside Tbilisi. Moreover, in the regions residents feel more skeptical about major household purchases.

BAR CHARTS: Consumer Responses by Questions