Slight shifts in CCI. After a moderate CCI decline in November, the Index began to improve (from -28.6 in November to -27.7 in December) but then shifted back down to -28.1 by January. Since October, overall sentiment seems to have stabilized around a new level. The Present Situation Index had minor improvements: by 0.8 index points from November to December, and with a further improvement of 0.1 points in January. While the Expectations Index rose by 1.3 points in December and then fell by 0.9 points in January.
Although the overall confidence level remained at the same level, several indicators have shifted. In December and January, people felt that their personal financial situation had worsened (a 9 index point decline in January compared to November). This might be due to higher than usual spending during the New Year season paired with high levels of inflation in the country. Most consumers considered it to be the right time to make major household purchases (perception increased by 11 points), which may have been fueled by the sales and discounts offered during the holidays. Expectations regarding making these major purchases in the future however declined by 14 points, which appears logical given the reduced levels of disposable income and perceptions of a worsened financial outlook.
The CCI has different dynamics for the Tbilisi population and for individuals living in Georgia’s regions. For Tbilisians, the Index declined by 4.5 points (compared to December) whereas it rose by 4.3 for people from the regions. The financial situation worsened more in the capital than across the rest of Georgia, where consumer confidence rose. The major driver for this increase was higher consumer readiness to make major purchases, driven by discounts offered during the holiday season in January.
BAR CHARTS: Consumer Responses by Questions