Indexes
January 2022 | CCI: reversal in December’s trend
22
February
2022
The CCI has fallen again. After a slight rebound of the Consumer Confidence Index in November, the index further improved in December from -31 to -29.8. However, in January the index decreased by 2.5 index points and fell to -32.3. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index followed the same trend in December as well as in January, with the Present Situation Index decreasing by 1.9 index points and the Expectations Index by 3.2 points (Chart 1).
In December, the major contributor to the increase, even though the change itself was insignificant, was people’s perceptions of how the general economic situation in Georgia had changed over the past 12-month period. In spite of high inflation and a new wave of Omicron cases in the country, consumer sentiment in December had a slight improvement which can be explained by expectations regarding the end of pandemic and relatively stable national currency, among other reasons.
As for January, there were several contributors to the observed decrease. The highest decline was seen in how people feel about saving during the current period, followed by expectations about changes in prices and unemployment levels in the country and lastly, how they expect the general economic situation to change in the upcoming year. The result is hardly surprising, as we’ve seen a huge increase in the number of infected people in January, together with the annual inflation rate peaking at 13.9%.
Consumer sentiment has declined in Tbilisi and in the rest of Georgia as well. The worsened pandemic situation and lowered expectations regarding the future have negatively affected the whole country (Chart 2). However, the decline in expectations seems to be higher in the regions compared to Tbilisi, with a 4 index point decline in the regions compared to a 2.6 point decline in Tbilisi. Given that the poverty rate in the regions is higher than in the capital and the population there is more prone to shocks, the burden of the pandemic and its consequences is heavier in the regions of Georgia.
BAR CHARTS: Consumer Responses by Questions |
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October 2024 | CCI deteriorating
10
November
2024
A notable fall in CCI. The decreasing trend has continued after the summer, with the CCI dropping even further in October – from -19.5 in September to -24.9 in October (a 5.4 index point decrease). Both sub-indices contributed to this decline, where the Present Situation Index fell by 6.7 index points and the Expectations Index by 4.2 points.
September 2024 | Decrease in CCI
20
October
2024
A slowed rebound. The CCI fluctuated over the summer, reaching its highest value for the period in August before a decline in September. After the Index had recovered in June, the CCI experienced a slight downturn in July, from -16.7 index points to -18.5, reaching -15.4 points in August and falling to -19.5 in September.
June 2024 | Quick recovery of CCI
29
July
2024
Certain factors negatively influencing consumer sentiment in May failed to have a lasting effect. In June, consumers’ ability to save showed significant improvements, with those able to save a proportion of their income increasing from 2% to 25%.
May 2024 | A notable drop in CCI
08
July
2024
A sharp decrease in CCI. The declining trend that started in April continued in May, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 9.5 index points – from -17.8 in April to -27.3 points in May. The decline was present in both CCI sub-indices, however, it was more prominent in the Present Situation Index. Namely, the Expectations Index declined by 5.5 index points, while the Present Situation Index decreased by 13.4 points.
April 2024 | The CCI is falling
01
May
2024
Decline in the CCI. After the Consumer Confidence Index rose in March, the trend once again reversed in April – with the CCI declining by 4 index points, from -13.8 in March to -17.8 in April. Both the Present Situation and the Expectations Index each decreased, however, the decline was more prominent for people’s expectations; the Present Situation Index decreased by 1.6 points, while the Expectations Index fell by 6.4 points.
