Indexes
March 2021 | CCI: Recent cautious optimism fades away
04
April
2021
The CCI deteriorated in March. We had hoped that the recovery of the Consumer Confidence Index, observed since December 2020, would bring the Index back to the levels observed last summer. Unfortunately, the trend reversed in March and the CCI decreased, from -35.5 in February to -39.0 in March. Both sub-indices (the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index) also followed the same pattern (Chart 1).
Chart 2. CCI by Question
What happened (Chart 2)? According to a recently released report from the National Statistics Office of Georgia, inflation rose to 7.2% in March. While this is not, as such, an exceptionally high number, it is the highest rate since 2019. It has also affected some important components of the consumer basket, as prices rose on food, healthcare, and utilities by 5.7%, 7.6%, and 13.6%, respectively. In addition, the utility bill subsidy ended in February, even though March was a chilly month. Looking closely at each component of the Index, we further noted that questions related to inflation (past and expected) largely caused a decline in the overall Index. With less purchasing power, people were also more skeptical about their ability to save. Finally, it seems significant that respondents also became more negative about their employment prospects, though there is no hard evidence to support this.
In addition to these economic factors, the death of a young nurse soon after vaccination was a stark reminder of the continuing COVID crisis. Ironically, this slowed the vaccine rollout and, if anything, will delay the economic recovery.
There was no noticeable difference in patterns between respondents living in Tbilisi and those outside the city (see Chart 3).
BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS
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October 2024 | CCI deteriorating
10
November
2024
A notable fall in CCI. The decreasing trend has continued after the summer, with the CCI dropping even further in October – from -19.5 in September to -24.9 in October (a 5.4 index point decrease). Both sub-indices contributed to this decline, where the Present Situation Index fell by 6.7 index points and the Expectations Index by 4.2 points.
September 2024 | Decrease in CCI
20
October
2024
A slowed rebound. The CCI fluctuated over the summer, reaching its highest value for the period in August before a decline in September. After the Index had recovered in June, the CCI experienced a slight downturn in July, from -16.7 index points to -18.5, reaching -15.4 points in August and falling to -19.5 in September.
June 2024 | Quick recovery of CCI
29
July
2024
Certain factors negatively influencing consumer sentiment in May failed to have a lasting effect. In June, consumers’ ability to save showed significant improvements, with those able to save a proportion of their income increasing from 2% to 25%.
May 2024 | A notable drop in CCI
08
July
2024
A sharp decrease in CCI. The declining trend that started in April continued in May, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 9.5 index points – from -17.8 in April to -27.3 points in May. The decline was present in both CCI sub-indices, however, it was more prominent in the Present Situation Index. Namely, the Expectations Index declined by 5.5 index points, while the Present Situation Index decreased by 13.4 points.
April 2024 | The CCI is falling
01
May
2024
Decline in the CCI. After the Consumer Confidence Index rose in March, the trend once again reversed in April – with the CCI declining by 4 index points, from -13.8 in March to -17.8 in April. Both the Present Situation and the Expectations Index each decreased, however, the decline was more prominent for people’s expectations; the Present Situation Index decreased by 1.6 points, while the Expectations Index fell by 6.4 points.
