The CCI has been picking up slightly in October, suggesting that the trend observed since May could be resuming after the dip of last month. It is a bit too early to draw a firm conclusion though, as the CCI remains below the values observed four years ago. With the forthcoming second round of elections, however, one should not be surprised that the CCI did not move much and, if the positive trend indeed resumes, it should show in next month’s survey.
In October 2020, consumer confidence increased by 2.6 index points (from -33.4 in September to -30.8 by October) with both subindices, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index increasing as can be seen from the graph (Chart 1).
The slight increase in the CCI could also be linked to better economic statistics in September. GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2020 and August were down by 12.3% and 5.3% (y-o-y) respectively. But in September, economic growth almost reverted back to normal (only 0.7% lower y-o-y, according to Geostat rapid estimates). An increase in the flow of remittances over the last couple of months might also have played a role.
The sentiment gap between Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia has slightly increased - from 2.7 to 4.9 index points (see Chart 2). As always, an improvement in economic condition affects Tbilisi before percolating to the rest of the country.