Indexes
October 2020 | CCI: A welcome (but small) rebound
23
November
2020
The CCI has been picking up slightly in October, suggesting that the trend observed since May could be resuming after the dip of last month. It is a bit too early to draw a firm conclusion though, as the CCI remains below the values observed four years ago. With the forthcoming second round of elections, however, one should not be surprised that the CCI did not move much and, if the positive trend indeed resumes, it should show in next month’s survey.
In October 2020, consumer confidence increased by 2.6 index points (from -33.4 in September to -30.8 by October) with both subindices, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index increasing as can be seen from the graph (Chart 1).
The slight increase in the CCI could also be linked to better economic statistics in September. GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2020 and August were down by 12.3% and 5.3% (y-o-y) respectively. But in September, economic growth almost reverted back to normal (only 0.7% lower y-o-y, according to Geostat rapid estimates). An increase in the flow of remittances over the last couple of months might also have played a role.
The sentiment gap between Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia has slightly increased - from 2.7 to 4.9 index points (see Chart 2). As always, an improvement in economic condition affects Tbilisi before percolating to the rest of the country.
BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS
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February 2024 | Downward trend continues
31
March
2024
CCI declines further. After a small decline in the Consumer Confidence Index in January, the downward trend continued further in February – the CCI dropped from -15.5 in January to -17.7 in February (by 2.2 index points). On this occasion, the two sub-indices diverged in different directions
January 2024 | A setback in CCI
18
February
2024
A slight trend reversal in the CCI. After a rise in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in December, January saw a small decline – from -14.1 in December to -15.5 in January, dropping by 1.4 index points. This fall is evident in both sub-indices – the Present Situation Index declined by 0.9 points and the Expectations Index by 2 points.
December 2023 | Jump in the CCI
21
January
2024
CCI sees improvement. The Consumer Confidence Index has experienced a significant positive shift, increasing by 6 index points – from -20.1 in November to -14.1 in December. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index contributed to this notable increase; however, the predominant factor was the rise in expectations (the Present Situation Index rose by 4.7 points and the Expectations Index by 7.4).
November 2023 | CCI declines
04
December
2023
The upward trend reversed. The Consumer Confidence Index lost its rising trend and fell by 3.7 index points, moving from -16.4 in October to -20.1 in November. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index contributed to this decline, with the Present Situation Index declining by 5 index points, while the Expectations Index decreased by 2.4 points.
October 2023 | A further increase in the CCI
16
November
2023
The upward trend continues. The Consumer Confidence Index experienced further growth of 3.1 index points – from -19.5 in September to -16.4 in October. This time, the Present Situation Index led the increase by shifting upwards 5.5 points, while the Expectations Index rose more moderately, by 0.5 points.
