Indexes
October 2020 | CCI: A welcome (but small) rebound
23
November
2020
The CCI has been picking up slightly in October, suggesting that the trend observed since May could be resuming after the dip of last month. It is a bit too early to draw a firm conclusion though, as the CCI remains below the values observed four years ago. With the forthcoming second round of elections, however, one should not be surprised that the CCI did not move much and, if the positive trend indeed resumes, it should show in next month’s survey.
In October 2020, consumer confidence increased by 2.6 index points (from -33.4 in September to -30.8 by October) with both subindices, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index increasing as can be seen from the graph (Chart 1).
The slight increase in the CCI could also be linked to better economic statistics in September. GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2020 and August were down by 12.3% and 5.3% (y-o-y) respectively. But in September, economic growth almost reverted back to normal (only 0.7% lower y-o-y, according to Geostat rapid estimates). An increase in the flow of remittances over the last couple of months might also have played a role.
The sentiment gap between Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia has slightly increased - from 2.7 to 4.9 index points (see Chart 2). As always, an improvement in economic condition affects Tbilisi before percolating to the rest of the country.
BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS
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October 2024 | CCI deteriorating
10
November
2024
A notable fall in CCI. The decreasing trend has continued after the summer, with the CCI dropping even further in October – from -19.5 in September to -24.9 in October (a 5.4 index point decrease). Both sub-indices contributed to this decline, where the Present Situation Index fell by 6.7 index points and the Expectations Index by 4.2 points.
September 2024 | Decrease in CCI
20
October
2024
A slowed rebound. The CCI fluctuated over the summer, reaching its highest value for the period in August before a decline in September. After the Index had recovered in June, the CCI experienced a slight downturn in July, from -16.7 index points to -18.5, reaching -15.4 points in August and falling to -19.5 in September.
June 2024 | Quick recovery of CCI
29
July
2024
Certain factors negatively influencing consumer sentiment in May failed to have a lasting effect. In June, consumers’ ability to save showed significant improvements, with those able to save a proportion of their income increasing from 2% to 25%.
May 2024 | A notable drop in CCI
08
July
2024
A sharp decrease in CCI. The declining trend that started in April continued in May, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 9.5 index points – from -17.8 in April to -27.3 points in May. The decline was present in both CCI sub-indices, however, it was more prominent in the Present Situation Index. Namely, the Expectations Index declined by 5.5 index points, while the Present Situation Index decreased by 13.4 points.
April 2024 | The CCI is falling
01
May
2024
Decline in the CCI. After the Consumer Confidence Index rose in March, the trend once again reversed in April – with the CCI declining by 4 index points, from -13.8 in March to -17.8 in April. Both the Present Situation and the Expectations Index each decreased, however, the decline was more prominent for people’s expectations; the Present Situation Index decreased by 1.6 points, while the Expectations Index fell by 6.4 points.
