Indexes
November 2020 | CCI: Consumer confidence deteriorates slightly amid further coronavirus restrictions
24
November
2020
The recovery of the Consumer Confidence Index, observed from May to July, has been losing steam in September and the November survey confirms that consumer confidence is struggling to go back to prior pandemic levels.
In November 2020, consumer confidence decreased by 3.4 index points (from -30.8 in October to -34.2 in November) with both sub-indices (the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index) decreasing as can be seen from Chart 1.
November has seen some political uncertainty. The opposition rejected the election results and refused to accept mandates in parliament. There were some protests with people demanding new elections and these demands were rejected by the ruling party. Political uncertainty always triggers a dip in confidence and this is one of the explanations for the loss of momentum in the CCI.
Then, there is the corona crisis. In November, Georgia reported a record high number of new cases (up to 5000 daily). To curb the spread of the virus in the country, the Georgian government introduced more restrictions that will be in place until 31 January and this led to yet another downward revision of growth rate estimates for 2020.
Consumer confidence deteriorated less outside the capital city though (Chart 2). This could be attributed to a significant rise in domestic exports, mostly of agricultural products, which primarily benefitted people living in rural areas. In October 2020, domestic export increased by 21.2 percent compared to October 2019, especially apples, but also hazelnuts (up by 39 percent).[1]
Not surprisingly, restrictions aimed at curbing the virus affected more the economically vulnerable groups which we proxy by considering those with secondary education and lower (Chart 3). Firstly, these groups have fewer opportunities to do their job remotely and, secondly, vital means of mobility for poorer people – public transport – was once again suspended.
This does not bode well for the immediate future. Beyond some lingering political tension, it is unlikely that COVID-19 restrictions will be eased any soon and we do not expect the CCI to rebound before the Spring.
BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS
1. Source: Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia
Recent Publications
View All
September 2024 | Decrease in CCI
20
October
2024
A slowed rebound. The CCI fluctuated over the summer, reaching its highest value for the period in August before a decline in September. After the Index had recovered in June, the CCI experienced a slight downturn in July, from -16.7 index points to -18.5, reaching -15.4 points in August and falling to -19.5 in September.
June 2024 | Quick recovery of CCI
29
July
2024
Certain factors negatively influencing consumer sentiment in May failed to have a lasting effect. In June, consumers’ ability to save showed significant improvements, with those able to save a proportion of their income increasing from 2% to 25%.
May 2024 | A notable drop in CCI
08
July
2024
A sharp decrease in CCI. The declining trend that started in April continued in May, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 9.5 index points – from -17.8 in April to -27.3 points in May. The decline was present in both CCI sub-indices, however, it was more prominent in the Present Situation Index. Namely, the Expectations Index declined by 5.5 index points, while the Present Situation Index decreased by 13.4 points.
April 2024 | The CCI is falling
01
May
2024
Decline in the CCI. After the Consumer Confidence Index rose in March, the trend once again reversed in April – with the CCI declining by 4 index points, from -13.8 in March to -17.8 in April. Both the Present Situation and the Expectations Index each decreased, however, the decline was more prominent for people’s expectations; the Present Situation Index decreased by 1.6 points, while the Expectations Index fell by 6.4 points.
March 2024 | Upheaval of the CCI
01
April
2024
Another rise in CCI. After the downward trends in January and February, the CCI increased by 3.9 index points, from -17.7 in February to -13.8 in March. Both the Expectations Index and the Current Situation Index moved upwards in tandem, increasing by 4 and 3.8 index points, respectively.
