Business Confidence Index: expectations catching up with reality - Q4 2015
15 December 2015

After the early signs of rebounding seen in Q3 2015, the Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) has lost 3 points (on [-100/100 scale])1 on the weakening of business expectations.

Having soared more than 30 points in the previous quarter, Q4 expectations are more in line with the actual business performance in July, August, and September, in which about 50% out of the 207 companies surveyed reported lower sales, turnover, or production numbers. Having lost 18 index points in one quarter – a sharp decline! – The lowering of business expectations brought about a small and hopefully temporary downturn in the overall Q4 2015 BCI.

As can be seen from the chart below, the decrease in business confidence was not apparent in all sectors of the economy. Unsurprisingly, because of the harvest, the agriculture sector’s outlook improved. The manufacturing sector also offered an encouraging signal from Q4, with the sector irreversibly recovering from the shock of the lari depreciation.