Indexes
Quarter 1 2023, Macro Review | Georgian economy moves ahead, but fears of global headwinds mar the start of 2023
03
July
2023
The global economy remains in a volatile state amid the prolonged effects of the combined negative shocks of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high inflation and the tightening monetary policy. Although the global economy remained resilient at the beginning of the year, the situation is expected to worsen. In 2023 global economic activity is expected to slow down despite several major economies showing stronger than expected economic growth, despite a rapid reopening of China and robust consumption in the United States. While China is expected to recover, the growth in advanced economies is likely to decline. The growth of global output, estimated at 3.4% in 2022 is expected to decline to 2.8% in 2023. This is the lowest growth rate observed since 2001 (excluding the 2008 global financial crisis and during the critical phase of the COVID-19 pandemic) (IMF, April 2023).
Given these global challenges, Georgia and the South Caucasus have been affected as well. Georgia’s neighbors are expected to show moderate to weak growth for 2023: Armenia (+5.5% y/y), Azerbaijan (+3% y/y), and Türkiye (+2.7% y/y). The Russian economy, surprisingly, is also expected to show positive, albeit weak economic growth (+0.7% y/y). The output in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to grow by 3.9%, on pace with 4% growth observed in 2022.
Recent Publications
View All
Quarter 3, 2023 Macro Review | Economic landscape in Georgia: navigating growth amidst global uncertainties and regional dynamics
29
December
2023
The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.
Quarter 2, 2023 Macro Review | Annual economic review: unpacking the slower GDP growth, inflation stability, and changing the FX stream dynamics
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
Quarter 4 2022, Macro Review | Georgian economy 2022 – the year in review
10
April
2023
In 2022 Georgia stayed on the path of recovery, exceeding experts’ expectations of economic performance. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show double-digit growth rates, measuring at 10.1% y/y in 2022 – which is remarkably close to the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 10% from October 2022.
Quarter 3 2022 | Macro Review: A perfect storm of global challenges in 2022 tests the resilience of the Georgian economy
26
December
2022
The third quarter of 2022 was marked by a “perfect storm” of global challenges. Due to the ongoing geopolitical, economic, and ecological turbulence, with inflation reaching its highest point in decades, the world economy remains volatile.
Quarter 2 2022 | Macro Review: The Georgian economy shows resilience in Q2 2022, despite the global headwinds from the war on Ukraine
03
October
2022
Following the tentative recovery observed in 2021, global economic conditions worsened significantly in 2022 (IMF, July 2022). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 caused global economic growth estimates to drop for the first time since 2020.
