Indexes

According to preliminary estimates, Georgian economic growth declined from 7.2% to 5.2% between July and August 2014. Although the August estimate is still quite high, there is increasing concern that the national economy is set to slow down in the second half of the year.
On the downside, the ISET-PI Leading Economic Indicators have revised the growth forecast for the third quarter of 2014 downward from 3.7% to 2.2%, and yearly growth to 3.8%. This implies a possibility of a significant economic slowdown in the last four months of 2014.
Secondly, the Consumer Confidence Index, and especially its Present Situation component, has had a declining trajectory since June (see Chart 2.). Although the index increased in Tbilisi from July to August, this was offset by the decline in the rest of Georgia, which was mainly a result of the drought and expected bad harvest.
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 24,855.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 11.0% and a GDP deflator change of 4.3%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Education activities rose by 35.6%, Information and communication rose by 32.8%, Construction by 30.9%, Financial and insurance activities by 22.9%, Public administration and defense, including social security by 14.7% and Wholesale and retail trade, including repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles by 11%. Conversely, there was a decline in value-added in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply by 13.6% and in Real estate activities by 4.9%.
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 22,101.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 9.6% and a GDP deflator change of 2.5%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Accommodation and food service activities rose by 35.7%, Education by 21.3%, household activities as employers and producers of goods and services for personal use by 17.3%, Transportation and storage by 16.1%, Public administration and defense, including social security, by 13.3%, and Construction by 13%.
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.
Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.
The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.