According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 3.4% in March, while the growth rate for Q1 stood at 2.3% year over year. The estimated first quarter growth was 0.5 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. We have updated our forecast for Q2 based on the new information and lowered it from 5% to 4.2%; at the same time, the Q3 forecast was revised upward to 4.3%.
Different international and domestic financial institutions have slight variations in their forecasts for Georgia’s year-over-year real GDP growth rate in 2016. The ADB and IMF both reduced their forecasts by 0.5%, now predicting 2.5% annual growth. In contrast, EBRD revised its forecast upward to 3.4% (coinciding with the value predicted by the ISET-PI forecast model), while the World Bank annual forecast stood at 3%. The National Bank of Georgia predicted a 3% growth earlier in the year, and ISET-PI (in our “middle-of-the-road” scenario forecast) predicted a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.