June 2016 Macro Review | Real growth rate in georgia stays on track. Disappointing export data reflects the high shares of metals and car re-exports in Georgia’s external trade
30 June 2016

According to Geostat estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% year over year (YoY) in April 2016. Although the growth rate showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year, the ISET-PI forecast for Q2 and Q3 has remained at 4.2% and 4.3%, the same as in previous predictions. This means that the real growth rate is expected to stabilize at the 4-4.5% level in the next months. The positive dynamic in the real GDP growth rate has been complemented with increasing trends in the consumer and business confidence indices in recent months. Unlike last quarter, the second quarter increase in the BCI was mostly driven by a significant improvement in performance rather than in business expectations, which kept rising albeit at a marginal pace. In terms of the CCI, the current situation component increased, but this was somewhat tempered by lowered expectations. Despite this, the overall CCI still climbed, resulting in the highest CCI level since January 2015 (see these links for the full reports: CCI, BCI).