Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019. The Q1 growth stands at 4.7%, which is only 0.4 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019 stands at 4.7% - up from 4.6% in April.

Around two years ago, ISET-PI published a blog article on the problem of over-indebtedness in Georgia. The article stressed the idea that due to notably increased access to finances, an aggressive marketing campaign provided by financial institutions, and poor socio-economic conditions throughout the country, Georgians (particularly the poorest) are mired in a swamp of debt, from which they are unable to escape.

In September 2016, the average price of cooking one Imeretian khachapuri stood at 3.43 GEL. Compared to the previous month (August 2016) the Khachapuri Index gained 8.6%. The upward trend in Index at this time of the year is mostly related to the seasonal increase in the price of cheese (due to dwindling supply of fresh milk). While going up in monthly terms, the Index actually dropped 0.8% compared to the same time of last year (y/y). As shown in the chart, the main contributors to Khachapuri Index annual deflation were eggs (-7%) and cheese (-3%). All other ingredients increased in price: milk (1%), flour (2%), yeast (9%), and butter (17%). Interestingly, prices fell y/y for locally produced goods (eggs and cheese); prices went up for goods that are imported (yeast and butter) or use imported intermediate inputs in their production (flour and milk).

According to a nationally representative sample of 341 Georgians interviewed in late February 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by 1.7 index points, from -17.5 in January to -19.2 in February. This dip was driven by the Present Situation Index, which fell from -19.5 to -23.8. The Expectations Index instead rose by 2.9 index points (from -17.5 to -14.6) compared to January.

On April 3rd, 2015, the government of Georgia adopted the Technical Regulation on Milk and Dairy Products that was enacted on August 1st, 2015. The technical regulation aims “to determine unified principles for regulating production, processing, and distribution of milk and dairy products as well as the protection of customers’ rights”. It provides definitions of terms “milk and dairy products”.