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Quarter 2 2021, Macro Review | Mixed blessings of recovery: what does Georgia’s best quarter since the pandemic tell us?
11 October 2021

The global economy continues to recover in Q2 2021 following the deep economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The growth accelerated as a result of the easing of virus-containment restrictions in most countries. IMF (July 2021) estimates that global GDP growth will reach 6% year over year (y/y) in 2021. Though this rebound is uneven – compared to the previous estimates (April 2021), growth projections for emerging markets and developing economies are revised downward.

Quarter 2 2020, Macro Review | In the Eye of the Hurricane: Georgia’s Economic Performance from April to June 2020
24 September 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has negatively affected the Georgian economy through a reduction in FDI, exports of goods and services, and remittances. In addition, uncertainties caused by the pandemic and containment measures hit consumption and domestic investment. As a result of this reduction in aggregate demand, combined with increased production costs due to pandemic-related constraints, GDP is expected to contract by 5% in 2020 according to NBG’s latest monetary report.

Quarter 1 2020, Macro Review | Early signs of pandemic
15 April 2020

In March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy started to sink into what is expected to be the deepest worldwide recession since World War II. Despite unprecedented policy support, the majority of countries have failed to soften the fallout from the crisis. According to World Bank estimates, global GDP will contract by 5.2% year over year (y/y) in 2020. The United States and Euro Area are projected to shrink by 6.1% and 9.1% respectively, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow at just 1% in 2020.

Quarter 3 2019, Macro Review | Georgia’s external demand and projected GDP growth remain strong – for now. But headwinds from the global economic slowdown pose a real threat
27 November 2019

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth constituted 5.7% year over year (y/y) in Q3 2019. As a result, estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2019 amounted to 5.0%, which is above the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) growth forecast for 2019 (the forecast remained unchanged at 4.5%). Meanwhile, based on September’s data, ISET-PI expects annual growth in 2019 to be 4.9%.

Quarter 2 2019, Macro Review | Quarter 2 indicators in good order, but clouds are gathering over Georgia's growth prospects for 2019
27 September 2019

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4.5% year over year (y/y) in Q2 2019, which fell slightly below the 4.8% growth predicted by ISET-PI’s GDP forecast from July. As economic growth constituted 4.9% y/y in Q1, the Georgian government’s 4.5% target of real GDP growth for 2019 does not seem overambitious.

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