The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening. Various factors are impeding the recovery, including the enduring effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. Additionally, cyclical challenges, such as the impact of necessary monetary policy tightening to curb inflation, the withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt levels, and extreme weather events, contribute to the complexities of the global economic landscape. IMF World Economic Outlook projects that the anticipated global growth is expected to decelerate, decreasing from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and further to 2.9 percent in 2024. These forecasts fall below the historical average of 3.8 percent observed in 2000-2019 (IMF, October 2023).
If we take a close look at the south Caucasus region, Georgia’s neighbors are expected to show moderate to weak growth for 2023: Armenia (+7.0 percent y/y), Azerbaijan (+2.5 percent y/y), Türkiye (+4.0 percent y/y), and the Russian economy is also expected to show positive 2.2 percent y/y (surged from 1.5%) growth. The output in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to grow by 4.0 percent in 2023, as well as in 2024 (adjusted from 4.1%) (IMF, October 2023).
According to GeoStat’s latest GDP growth statistics, the Georgian economy grew by 5.7 percent in the third quarter of 2023. Moreover, it is expected that improved investment dynamics will persist, hence, the National Bank of Georgia sticks with the previous real GDP growth expectations for 2023 as 6 percent (NBG, August 2023).
02
October
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the second quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 22,101.7 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 9.6% and a GDP deflator change of 2.5%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Accommodation and food service activities rose by 35.7%, Education by 21.3%, household activities as employers and producers of goods and services for personal use by 17.3%, Transportation and storage by 16.1%, Public administration and defense, including social security, by 13.3%, and Construction by 13%.
28
June
2024
According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.
01
April
2024
Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
03
July
2023
The global economy remains in a volatile state amid the prolonged effects of the combined negative shocks of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, and the tightening monetary policy. Although the global economy remained resilient at the beginning of the year, the situation is expected to worsen.
