Prompted by the Georgian Government's recent decision to select a Chinese company for the implementation of the Anaklia Deep Sea Port project, ISET-PI’s recent policy note (July 11, 2024) provides useful insights into China's ascent as the largest bilateral creditor for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), its lending practices and case studies, with that background analyses the risks associated with the Anaklia project and provides recommendations. Here is a summary of the main findings.

China is the largest bilateral creditor to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) presently. China’s lending mainly targets infrastructure, transport, energy, and mining sectors in developing countries that are of strategic importance to the Chinese government. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have observed the most substantial increases in borrowing. Chinese financing to LMICs is facilitated through state entities, offering concessional and non-concessional loans, with a significant portion of lending cloaked in confidentiality.

According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates in the first quarter of 2024, Georgia’s nominal GDP reached GEL 18,913.2 million, with a year-over-year real GDP growth of 8.4% and a GDP deflator change of 3.1%. The growth was driven by significant increases in value-added across various sectors: Real estate activities rose by 18.8%, Education by 29.1%, Public administration and defence, including social security, by 13.0%, Construction by 10.3%, Information and communication by 12.2%, and Transportation and storage by 9.7%.

The recent amendment to Georgia’s tax code, known as the “offshores law,” has sparked significant concern regarding the integrity of Georgia’s financial system. This policy brief examines the implications of this amendment in the context of Georgia’s recent political and regulatory developments, which have raised alarms about the potential risks of money laundering and sanctions evasion.

Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.