The global economy continues to recover in Q3 2021 following the deep economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth accelerated as a result of the easing of virus- containment restrictions in most countries. According to the IMF forecast (October 2021), global GDP will grow 5.9% year over year (y/y), which is a downward adjustment from the previous estimate of 6% (July 2021).

Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.

In November 2021, the Khachapuri Index continued its upward trend and reached 5.37 GEL. This figure is 7.2% higher than the previous month (October 2021) and 19% higher than November 2020 (YoY). Every ingredient contributed to the YoY Khachapuri Index inflation: eggs (38.6%), flour (30.2%), butter (22.6%), yeast (18.7%), cheese (14%), and milk (10.3%).

In October 2021, the cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri increased both annually and monthly, ranging between 4.3 GEL (Kutaisi) and 5.5 GEL (Telavi), with an average cost of 5.0 GEL. The latest average price is 14.9% higher than October 2020. In month-to-month development, the price of a khachapuri is 4.2% higher, compared to the previous month.

In the past year and a half since the pandemic began, we’ve all become familiar with phrases such as “supply chain disruption,” “turbulence and volatility in international markets,” and “in these unprecedented times,” often used to preface news about pandemic-related food price increases across the globe.