The CCI is falling again. After the increase of consumer confidence in September, it dropped to a level similar to June, before the trend had reversed over the remaining summer months. The CCI decreased from -29.5 in September to -32.5 in October, with both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moving downwards.
According to Geostat’s updated estimate, Q3 2021 growth rate stands at 9%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2021 is 11.3%.
In October 2021, the cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri increased both annually and monthly, ranging between 4.3 GEL (Kutaisi) and 5.5 GEL (Telavi), with an average cost of 5.0 GEL. The latest average price is 14.9% higher than October 2020. In month-to-month development, the price of a khachapuri is 4.2% higher, compared to the previous month.
For the 4th quarter of 2021, business confidence in Georgia decreased slightly (by 5.8 index points) and reached 30.6. The highest decrease in business confidence is observed in construction (-21.0), service (-15.3), and agriculture (-8.8) sectors. A negative change in BCI for Q4 2021 was driven by worsened future expectations and past performance.
The CCI is catching up. After decreasing consumer confidence during the summer, the CCI rose by 4.7 index points in September (from -34.2 in August to -29.5 in September). Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moved upwards in tandem. The Present Situation Index increased by 3 index points, and the Expectations Index by 6.3.