Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019. The Q1 growth stands at 4.7%, which is only 0.4 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019 stands at 4.7% - up from 4.6% in April.

ISET-PI’s forecasted real GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2019 remain at 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively. Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 4.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 4.1%.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

ISET-PI’s leading GDP indicator forecast, made at the beginning of the year, was more precise. At the time, we predicted 4.6% annual growth in the worst-case, “no growth” scenario, and 5.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. While our “middle-of-the-road” scenario predicted the exact 4.8% real GDP growth.

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018, and their estimated growth stands at 4.8%, which is 1.1 percentage point above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.