Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020, and their estimated growth stands at -6.5%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2020 amounted to -6.1%, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than our recent prediction. Economic activity fell sharply due to global pandemic, although the decline was mitigated by the relatively strong fiscal stimulus and lending.

Confidence is retreating after a recovery that lasted about 6 months. Last month, in spite of a slight decline of the CCI, we could hold on to the belief that we had reached a plateau in the recovery from the low numbers observed last April.

The recovery of the Consumer Confidence Index, observed from May to July, has been losing steam in September and the November survey confirms that consumer confidence is struggling to go back to prior pandemic levels.

The CCI has been picking up slightly in October, suggesting that the trend observed since May could be resuming after the dip of last month. It is a bit too early to draw a firm conclusion though, as the CCI remains below the values observed four years ago.

The 2020 October parliamentary elections are quickly approaching. This could mark a turning point in Georgian politics as the country has embarked on the path towards a more proportional electoral system.