
After a temporary increase at the end of October, driven by seasonal fruits and vegetables, in the last two weeks of November, ISET’s Retail Food Price Index decreased by 0.1% m/m (compared to the last week of October) and 12.1% y/y (compared to November 2015). We recorded the biggest drops for bananas (-12%), tomatoes (-12%), and beef (-7%). On the other hand, prices increased most for cabbage (10%), plums (8%), and cucumber (2%).

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in November 2016 stood at 3.46 GEL, which is 1.9% higher month-on-month (compared to October 2016). The Khachapuri Index is down up by 5.6% year-on-year (compared to November 2015), suggesting annual deflation as measured by the index.

Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2016. The Q3 growth rate stands at 2.2%, which was 1.3% below the ISET PI’s forecasted value. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2016 was revised downward to 2.9% from the 4.1% projected in October.

According to the Khachapuri Index, year-on-year, we have observed a sharp increase (up by 9.1% compared to October 2015) in the price of butter. Typically, the price of butter should follow the price of milk, since the latter is the major ingredient of butter. Interestingly, however, the data collected for Khachapuri Index does not support this trend. Our data showed a 1.1% year-on-year decrease in the price of milk.

After a couple of declines, food prices in the largest supermarkets in Georgia have increased. In the first two weeks of November, an upward trend was maintained: Retail FPI was 2% higher compared to the same period of October. An increase in FPI was driven by an increase in the price of fruits and vegetables. On an annual basis, we still record a significant overall 9.5% decline (November 2016 VS November 2015).