Driven by fruits and vegetables, Georgian retail food prices are going down. In the first half of May, ISET’s Retail Food Price Index lost 2.9% y/y (compared to May 2015) and 1.8% m/m (compared to April 2016). The leaders in prices declines were cheese, greens, and coffee: down by 10.2%, 5.1%, and 2.7%, respectively.

Spring brings happiness in peoples’ lives not only because of the brighter days but also because of the increased supply of many seasonal products. This is reflected in the production cost of Khachapuri. In April 2016, the national average cost of preparing one standard Imeretian khachapuri went down to 3.16 GEL, 3.2% lower compared to March 2016 (but 6.9% higher compared to April 2015).

According to data from the last two weeks of April, retail food prices are down 4.6% y/y (compared to April 2015) and 0.6% m/m (compared to March 2016). During these two weeks, we have seen the biggest drops in the prices of eggplants (21.4%), buckwheat (9.4%), and tomato (9.0%). Only one (!) product increased in price during this period: greens (up 3.8%).

In March 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.27 GEL, which is 5% lower month-on-month (that is compared to February 2016), and 6.9% higher year-on-year (compared to March 2015).

According to GeoStat estimates, real GDP grew by 2.6% year over year in February 2016. This growth rate is an improvement over the 0.8% growth observed in the previous months. Still, in order to reach the predicted quarterly 2.9% growth (the ISET-PI forecast for Q1 real growth), the economy would have to have expanded by at least 5.4% in March. While the actual growth for March is likely to be lower than that figure, the increases in the consumer and business confidence indices (CCI, BCI) in the last month can be interpreted as good signs for the economy going forward.