
According to a nationally representative sample of 341 Georgians interviewed in late February 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by 1.7 index points, from -17.5 in January to -19.2 in February. This dip was driven by the Present Situation Index, which fell from -19.5 to -23.8. The Expectations Index instead rose by 2.9 index points (from -17.5 to -14.6) compared to January.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

Underdevelopment of the land market is a major obstacle behind the development of Georgian agriculture. A significant number of unregistered plots of land prevent land consolidation and increases in agricultural productivity. According to the Ministry of Justice, as of February 2019, in the framework of the land registration reform, since 2016, there are 543,139 citizens who have registered 130,943 ha of land; 1,431 legal entities which have registered 1,793 ha; and 34,131 state entities with 169,241 ha of registered land.

The average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian Khachapuri stood at 3.54 GEL in February 2019. This is 2.2% lower MoM (compared to January 2019), and 3.5% lower YoY (in comparison to February of 2018). The index having a downward trend at this time of the year is not unusual, and chiefly relates to the decreasing price of cheese (due to a higher supply of fresh milk).

In February 2019, Georgian power plants generated 939 mln. kWh of electricity (Figure 1). This represents a 0.5% increase in total generation, compared to the previous year (in 2018, total generation in February was 934 mln. kWh). Increase in generation on a yearly basis comes from increase in thermal and wind power generation (+26% and +24%), more than offsetting the decrease in hydro power generation (-14%).