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According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 2.2% year over year (YoY) in 2016. This result fell behind the World Bank’s, IMF’s, and EBRD’s last growth projections of 3.4%. The NBG’s 3.5% growth projection from November also overestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2016.
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According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 1.5% in September 2016, while the growth rate for Q3 stood at 2.2% year over year (YoY). The estimated third-quarter growth was thus 1.3 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. One should note that the data from September are likely to include a very high services component (revenues from the tourism sector). Therefore, the quarterly growth number is likely to be revised upward in the future as more data comes in.
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The IMF’s projection for real GDP growth in Georgia in 2017 was revised upward to 5.2% from the predicted 4.5% in April. This is the highest projected regional growth rate and is certainly very encouraging. Despite this, Georgia remains a small economy, where GDP growth has always been highly correlated to the economic performance of its large trading partners.
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According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.
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According to Geostat estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% year over year (YoY) in April 2016. Although the growth rate showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year, the ISET-PI forecast for Q2 and Q3 has remained at 4.2% and 4.3%, the same as in previous predictions. This means that the real growth rate is expected to stabilize at the 4-4.5% level in the next months.