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The global economy continues to recover in Q3 2021 following the deep economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth accelerated as a result of the easing of virus- containment restrictions in most countries. According to the IMF forecast (October 2021), global GDP will grow 5.9% year over year (y/y), which is a downward adjustment from the previous estimate of 6% (July 2021).
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Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.
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According to Geostat’s updated estimate, Q3 2021 growth rate stands at 9%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2021 is 11.3%.
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Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021, which now stands at 29.9%. The real GDP growth rate reached 9.9% year-on-year in July 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first seven months of 2021 amounted to 12.2%.
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Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2021. The Q1 growth stands at -4.2%, which is 1.2 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021 stands at 12.2% -up from 11% in April. The third-quarter growth forecast currently stands at 3.3%.