In recent months, ISET‐PI has devoted considerable time to explore the reasons behind the sharp decline in annual real GDP growth in 2013 (from 6.2% in 2012 to 3.3%). With official data for the whole of 2013 finally becoming available, we are taking this opportunity to revisit our previous conclusions and offer new insights.

On January 31, 2014, ISET hosted the third of a series of events concerning inclusive growth. The topic of the event was Vocational education and training (VET) in Georgia.

Why should we care about income inequality? According to Nobel Prize laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard economist Jason Furman, “greater inequality leads to more political instability, and greater political instability leads to lower growth” (“Economic Consequences of Income Inequality”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas: Journal Proceedings, 1998, pp. 221-232).

After reaching negative growth in June 2013 the y-o-y growth of real GDP started to improve slowly and already in November 2013 the growth rate catches up to its previous 2011-2012 higher numbers. According to the GeoStat primary estimations, the average growth rate of the previous three months (November, December 2013, and January 2014) is approximately 8.1% (see Chart 1).

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 has been revised downward from 5.2%to 4.9%. The forecast for the first quarter of 2014 has also been reduced from 6.5% to 5.7%. Given the Geostat data for the first three quarters and the ISET-PI forecast for the 4th quarter, the annual growth rate for 2013 is projected to be 2.6%.