According to GeoStat’s preliminary data for 2018, Georgia’s economy grew by 4.7%- the same rate as in 2017. As 2017 was a challenging year for Georgian agriculture, the sector experienced -3.8% negative growth. Unlike 2017, agriculture in 2018 had a positive and rather modest growth rate of 0.7%.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in the second month of 2019 decreased to 3.54 GEL, 2.2% lower month-on-month (in comparison to the previous month), and 3.5% lower year-on-year (compared to the same month of last year). The Khachapuri Index is driven primarily by the price of cheese, the main ingredient in khachapuri. In February 2019, the cheese price declined in almost all large Georgian cities, relative to the same month of last year. The highest yearly price decrease (13.5%) of Imeretian cheese was recorded in the capital, Tbilisi. For Khachapuri lovers, Telavi is currently the most expensive city, with Tbilisi taking second place.

According to a nationally representative sample of 341 Georgians interviewed in late February 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped by 1.7 index points, from -17.5 in January to -19.2 in February. This dip was driven by the Present Situation Index, which fell from -19.5 to -23.8. The Expectations Index instead rose by 2.9 index points (from -17.5 to -14.6) compared to January.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

Underdevelopment of the land market is a major obstacle behind the development of Georgian agriculture. A significant number of unregistered plots of land prevent land consolidation and increases in agricultural productivity. According to the Ministry of Justice, as of February 2019, in the framework of the land registration reform, since 2016, there are 543,139 citizens who have registered 130,943 ha of land; 1,431 legal entities which have registered 1,793 ha; and 34,131 state entities with 169,241 ha of registered land.