According to Geostat’s rapid growth estimates, Georgia’s real GDP declined by 0.5% in November 2014 (Chart 1). Despite this, growth in the first eleven months of 2014 was a robust 5%, which is certainly a much better result than most countries in the region could boast. The ISET fourth-quarter GDP forecast predicts 3.9% growth in the last three months of 2014.

The Business Confidence Index decreased slightly and registered 24.5 points in Q1 (previous quarter BCI was 24.9). Decrease in the retail sector business confidence is marginally the highest. This is driven by a sizeable drop in Consumer Confidence. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell sharply since November 2014. The sales price expectations turned from negative to positive in the first quarter of 2015. Insufficient demand remains the most limiting factor for doing business in Georgia.

In December 2014, Khachapuri Index returned to its upward seasonal trend and reached 3.66GEL. This is 9.4% higher compared to the previous month (November 2014) and 2.4% higher compared to December 2013 (y/y). The main contributors to y/y Khachapuri Index inflation were flour (16.4%), milk (7.2%), yeast (5.1%), butter (3.2%), and cheese (0.7%), while the price of eggs dropped (-6.4%).

Based on the November data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 3.6% to 3.9%. The second forecast for the first quarter of 2015 increased from the initial 3.2% to 3.7%.

The study assesses a possible impact of USAID-funded agricultural projects in Georgia on U.S. commodity production and U.S. jobs and workers rights. USAID's yearly obligation requires confirmation that USAID-funded activities do not impact U.S. jobs and workers rights and do not result in increased competition of Georgian products with similar commodities produced in the U.S.