In October 2020, the Khachapuri Index continued its upward trend and reached 4.37 GEL. This figure is 2.9% higher than the previous month (September 2020) and 12.5% higher than October 2019 (YoY). Every ingredient contributed to the YoY Khachapuri Index inflation: cheese (19.0%), flour (16.3%), butter (12.4%), yeast (16.4%), milk (2.8%), and eggs (0.3%).

For the fourth quarter of 2020, BCI decreased by 18.7 index points and reached -28.6 after a significant improvement in the previous quarter. Business confidence deteriorated across all sectors, except retail trade and financial. The largest decrease is observed in the construction sector. The negative change in BCI, for Q4 2020, is driven by significantly pessimistic future expectations.

In September 2020, Georgian power plants generated 877 mln. kWh of electricity. This represents a 7% increase in total generation, compared to the previous year (September 2019, the total generation was 821 mln. kWh). The increase in generation on a yearly basis comes from the increase of 15% in wind power generation, 13% in thermal power generation, and 5% in hydro power generation.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 remains at -11.6%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on retrospective information (past observations), thus, the abnormally large negative growth of real GDP during the state of emergency period causes an overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.

The National Statistics Office of Georgia (GeoStat) recently published its economic review for Quarter II 2020. The publication highlights that agricultural production increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2019. Furthermore, agriculture contributed to 10.2% of the country’s total GDP during the same period.