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The International Energy Agency provides a definition of energy security across two dimensions. In a broad sense, energy security is defined as the “uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price,” while short-term energy security denotes that an energy system has the capability to promptly balance any disruption in the supply-demand equilibrium.
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In the third and the fourth quarters of 2020, Georgian power plants generated 2,958 mln. and 2,594 mln. kWh of electricity, respectively. This represents a 9.6% decrease and 2.4% increase in total generation compared to the corresponding periods of the previous year.
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In the first and second quarters of 2020, Georgian power plants generated 2,893 mln. and 2,797 mln. kWh of electricity, respectively (Figure 1). This represents a 1.5% and 9.7% decrease in total generation compared to the corresponding periods of the previous year (in 2019, the total generation in Q1 was 2,936 mln. kWh and 3,097 mln. kWh in Q2).
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The real GDP growth rate amounted to -3.9% year-on-year for October 2020. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first ten months of 2020 was -5.1%. Recently, GeoStat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2020. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised downward to 2.2% (by 0.1 ppt) and -13.2% (by 0.9 ppt) respectively.
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Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2020. The Q3 growth rate stands at -3.8%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2020 is -5%. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2020 was revised to -3.3%. ISET-PI’s first forecast for Q1 of 2021 puts GDP growth at -1.4%.