There is a Georgian joke that goes: “Relatives are the people you see whenever their number changes”. In other words, relatives all tend to gather when any of them gets married, gives birth, or dies. As a result, we frequently observe Georgians organizing mass gatherings to either celebrate or mourn numerical “changes” in their families. While there is a recent trend among the wealthier and better-educated people to switch to more intimate, smaller events, the poorer rural people continue to arrange Georgian supra of monumental proportions.

As suggested by ISET’s most recent Consumer Confidence report, Georgian consumers are in no mood for shopping. And, yet, Tbilisi is abuzz with excitement about the recent lavish opening of East Point – a giant new shopping and entertainment center, the largest of its kind in the country. Thus, while consumer confidence is hitting new lows, the supply of retail space and world-class shopping malls continues to hit its highs.

During the last 12 months, the Georgian authorities have been conducting interesting experiments designed, so it seems, to test the resilience of domestic beer producers. In September 2014, the industry was hit by Article 171 of the Civil Code, prohibiting alcohol consumption in public places. The beer market, 97% of which is supplied by local producers, has immediately shrunk by 22% (in physical volume, see chart), in annual terms.

Georgian consumer confidence suffered a major blow at the end of 2014, in the wake of the sharp Lari depreciation. Around February 2015, the Index found some support at the very low level of -35-30 points and has been slightly improving since then. In July 2015, this mildly positive trend was reversed, and in August, the Index dropped another 4.1 points to reach a new historical minimum of -38.4 points. Interestingly, this entire drop was driven by older respondents, those aged over 35. We will come back to this point later in the article.

An average Georgian household spends more than 40% of its budget on food. It, therefore, stands to reason that Georgian consumers are quite sensitive to food prices, which may be very good news considering recent developments in global commodity markets. According to the latest World Bank’s Food Price Watch, “international food prices declined by 14% between August 2014 and May 2015, sliding into a five-year low.”