According to the latest GEOSTAT figures, merchandize exports from Georgia decreased by 1.63% between 2013 and 2014. This is certainly not great news for the country, but does it imply that Georgian goods have become less competitive on the world market? Recent trade data suggest that this is not necessarily the case.
During the last three months, the Agricultural Policy Research Center (APRC) of ISET-PI was working on a study about family farming in Georgia. Within this project, we conducted interviews with farmers and owners of agribusinesses. These interviews elicited many intriguing facets of Georgian agriculture, but one aspect I found particularly interesting was that Georgian farmers apparently have a rather negative view on agricultural jobs.
According to Geostat’s rapid growth estimates, Georgia’s real GDP declined by 0.5% in November 2014 (Chart 1). Despite this, growth in the first eleven months of 2014 was a robust 5%, which is certainly a much better result than most countries in the region could boast. The ISET fourth-quarter GDP forecast predicts 3.9% growth in the last three months of 2014.
The Business Confidence Index decreased slightly and registered 24.5 points in Q1 (previous quarter BCI was 24.9). Decrease in the retail sector business confidence is marginally the highest. This is driven by a sizeable drop in Consumer Confidence. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell sharply since November 2014. The sales price expectations turned from negative to positive in the first quarter of 2015. Insufficient demand remains the most limiting factor for doing business in Georgia.
The study assesses a possible impact of USAID-funded agricultural projects in Georgia on U.S. commodity production and U.S. jobs and workers rights. USAID's yearly obligation requires confirmation that USAID-funded activities do not impact U.S. jobs and workers rights and do not result in increased competition of Georgian products with similar commodities produced in the U.S.