ISET

December 2015 GDP Forecast | Decrease in the trade deficit – a small, but positive impact on the growth forecast

17 December 2015

We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the new data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.5%.

November 2015 GDP Forecast | Depositors’ inflation hedging puts downward pressure on growth forecast

09 December 2015

Geostat has released its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter. The estimated Q3 growth is 2.5%, only 0.1 percentage points below the ISET-PI forecasted value. The forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.6%.

October 2015 GDP Forecast | Deposit dollarization dampens growth forecast

30 October 2015

The final growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed significantly since last month (declining by only 0.02%) and remains at 2.6%. Similarly, the second growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 is still 3.8%.

September 2015 GDP Forecast | Third quarter growth outlook stable. Deposit dollarization gains momentum in Georgia

17 September 2015

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed since last month and remains at 2.6%. The first forecast for the fourth quarter growth of 2015 has been targeted at 3.8%.

August 2015 GDP Forecast | Low single digit growth will persist in the 3rd quarter of 2015

14 August 2015

Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).