In April 2018, the Georgian Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) lost 1.5 index points, dropping from -17.5 to -19. This tiny change is a signal of stability (or stagnation) as far as domestic demand is concerned. Whether no change is a good change for Georgia is debatable. In any case, the month of April merely continues a long-term no-change trend dating back at least to September 2017.

March 2018 extends a long period of “business-as-usual” for Georgian consumers. The overall CCI improved by only 1.6 index points (from -19.1 to -17.5), remaining within the narrow band of [-21, -16] in which it has hovered since July 2017. All the improvement in March is due to the 5.3 index points increase in the Present Situation Index (up from -27.4 to -22.2). Expectations have actually declined by 2 index points (down from -10.8 to -12.8).

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2018. The Q1 growth stands at 5.2 percent, which is 1.1 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 stands at 5.9 percent - up from 5.1 percent in April.

Georgian consumer sentiment remained practically unchanged in February 2018, extending a fairly long trend of stability (or stagnation) that goes back to at least August 2017. The CCI lost a tiny 0.2 index points, declining from -18.9 in January to -19.1 index points in February 2018. CCI’s two sub-indices, capturing consumer expectations and present situation assessment, moved in the opposite directions. The Present Situation Index lost 3.8 (declining from -23.6 to -27.4 index points).

The second half of 2017 lacked any drama, at least as far as Georgian consumer confidence (CCI) is concerned. During this period, the CCI moved within a very narrow band of [-16; -20] index points, with monthly changes not exceeding one or two points. This trend continued in January 2018 – the CCI lost 1.1 index points, declining from -17.8 in December to -18.9 index points in January 2018. CCI’s two sub-indices, capturing consumer expectations and present situation assessment, moved in the opposite directions.