According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 3.4% in March, while the growth rate for Q1 stood at 2.3% year over year. The estimated first quarter growth was 0.5 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. We have updated our forecast for Q2 based on the new information and lowered it from 5% to 4.2%; at the same time, the Q3 forecast was revised upward to 4.3%.

As suggested by ISET’s most recent Consumer Confidence report, Georgian consumers are in no mood for shopping. And, yet, Tbilisi is abuzz with excitement about the recent lavish opening of East Point – a giant new shopping and entertainment center, the largest of its kind in the country. Thus, while consumer confidence is hitting new lows, the supply of retail space and world-class shopping malls continues to hit its highs.

Georgian consumer confidence suffered a major blow at the end of 2014, in the wake of the sharp Lari depreciation. Around February 2015, the Index found some support at the very low level of -35-30 points and has been slightly improving since then. In July 2015, this mildly positive trend was reversed, and in August, the Index dropped another 4.1 points to reach a new historical minimum of -38.4 points. Interestingly, this entire drop was driven by older respondents, those aged over 35. We will come back to this point later in the article.

After several months of incremental improvements, Consumer Confidence Index dropped 4.1 points in August 2015, to reach a new historical minimum of -38.4 points. Interestingly, this entire drop was driven by older respondents (aged over 35).

One of the few economists who won the Nobel Peace Prize is Muhammad Yunus, a Bangladeshi who invented the concept of microcredits. What is it about?