In the past two weeks, Georgians have been waking up with a sense of déjà vu. In a matter of days, the Georgian currency lost over 8% of its value against the US dollar and reversed the course of appreciation against the euro. The lari winter blues are reminiscent of the last months of 2013, when, after a long period of stability, the lari lost about 5% of its value against the dollar in the course of ten weeks.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in November 2014 was 3.34 GEL, which is 0.2% lower month-on-month (m/m, that is compared to the previous month), and 2.4% lower year-on-year (y/y, that is compared to the same month of last year). However, Khachapuri became even cheaper for foreign currency earners because of a sudden GEL depreciation (m/m and y/y) relative to USD and EUR during the last two weeks of November.

“Jewelry you can pawn whenever you encounter financial difficulties", we were told by a friend. In our circles of acquaintances, there are quite a number of people who enjoy the services of pawnshops. The reasons range from renovating apartments, paying tuition for children, and buying new hi-fi systems for the car, to repaying the 1000 lari that the 18-year-old son had lost in gambling.

Assume you have lent your brother 1000 laris, and because he is a close family member, you do not charge interest from him. One day you get a phone call from your brother, and he offers you to pay back the debt either today or one year from now. What would you choose? If you act in line with standard economic theory, you would choose to get the money back today.

The value of a currency, measured in terms of other currencies, has consequences for the real economy. A more expensive lari, for example, makes it more profitable to import goods into Georgia. The importer has to pay the foreign goods with foreign currency, and when the lari is more valuable, fewer lari is needed to pay for them.