02
May
2016
Spring brings happiness in peoples’ lives not only because of the brighter days but also because of the increased supply of many seasonal products. This is reflected in the production cost of Khachapuri. In April 2016, the national average cost of preparing one standard Imeretian khachapuri went down to 3.16 GEL, 3.2% lower compared to March 2016 (but 6.9% higher compared to April 2015).
28
April
2016
According to data from the last two weeks of April, retail food prices are down 4.6% y/y (compared to April 2015) and 0.6% m/m (compared to March 2016). During these two weeks, we have seen the biggest drops in the prices of eggplants (21.4%), buckwheat (9.4%), and tomato (9.0%). Only one (!) product increased in price during this period: greens (up 3.8%).
25
April
2016
In March 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.27 GEL, which is 5% lower month-on-month (that is compared to February 2016), and 6.9% higher year-on-year (compared to March 2015).
20
April
2016
According to GeoStat estimates, real GDP grew by 2.6% year over year in February 2016. This growth rate is an improvement over the 0.8% growth observed in the previous months. Still, in order to reach the predicted quarterly 2.9% growth (the ISET-PI forecast for Q1 real growth), the economy would have to have expanded by at least 5.4% in March. While the actual growth for March is likely to be lower than that figure, the increases in the consumer and business confidence indices (CCI, BCI) in the last month can be interpreted as good signs for the economy going forward.
20
April
2016
We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.
