21
November
2016
Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2016. The Q3 growth rate stands at 2.2%, which was 1.3% below the ISET PI’s forecasted value. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2016 was revised downward to 2.9% from the 4.1% projected in October.
21
November
2016
According to the Khachapuri Index, year-on-year, we have observed a sharp increase (up by 9.1% compared to October 2015) in the price of butter. Typically, the price of butter should follow the price of milk, since the latter is the major ingredient of butter. Interestingly, however, the data collected for Khachapuri Index does not support this trend. Our data showed a 1.1% year-on-year decrease in the price of milk.
15
November
2016
After a couple of declines, food prices in the largest supermarkets in Georgia have increased. In the first two weeks of November, an upward trend was maintained: Retail FPI was 2% higher compared to the same period of October. An increase in FPI was driven by an increase in the price of fruits and vegetables. On an annual basis, we still record a significant overall 9.5% decline (November 2016 VS November 2015).
14
November
2016
In October 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian Khachapuri was 3.39 GEL, which is 6.1% lower year-on-year (compared to the same month of the previous year, October 2015).
10
November
2016
According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 1.5% in September 2016, while the growth rate for Q3 stood at 2.2% year over year (YoY). The estimated third-quarter growth was thus 1.3 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. One should note that the data from September are likely to include a very high services component (revenues from the tourism sector). Therefore, the quarterly growth number is likely to be revised upward in the future as more data comes in.
