Russia’s invasion of Ukraine profoundly impacted the global economy, immediately sending shockwaves across the globe. The attack of a country that was once a major energy supplier to Europe on the country which was one of the top food exporters in the world, sent food and fuel prices spiraling, causing major energy shortages and the prospect of protracted recession in the United States and the European Union.

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than our recent prediction.

The latest impact of Gavrilov’s visit to Georgia has fueled societal concerns about the economic consequences of deterioration in Russo-Georgian relations. For instance, due to the Russian government’s decision to cancel flights to Georgia, residents are beginning to worry about potentially adverse economic impacts on the tourism sector. ISET-PI has already discussed the expected impact of such a change, highlighting how these concerns might be unwarranted, as tourism accounts for 7.6% of the GDP, with Russian tourism contributing only 1.8% to the economy.

Despite the fast pace of installing gas infrastructure throughout the country, wood remains a major household fuel in Georgia. According to Georgia’s energy balance, in 2014, Georgian households consumed 19,131 Terajoules of biofuel and waste (mainly wood). The share of wood in total energy consumed by households was 38%.

The blog piece is available only in Georgian.