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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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November 2021 GDP Forecast | Georgian economic growth in 2021 driven mainly by the recovering external sector
15 November 2021

According to Geostat’s updated estimate, Q3 2021 growth rate stands at 9%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2021 is 11.3%.
September 2021 GDP Forecast | Inflation hurts Georgia’s GDP forecast, while recovery of remittances and real exchange rate appreciation make a positive impact
27 September 2021

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021, which now stands at 29.9%. The real GDP growth rate reached 9.9% year-on-year in July 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first seven months of 2021 amounted to 12.2%.
May 2021 GDP Forecast | Tourism decline was main driver of 2020 negative growth. Will it drive the recovery in 2021?
24 May 2021

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2021. The Q1 growth stands at -4.2%, which is 1.2 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021 stands at 12.2% -up from 11% in April. The third-quarter growth forecast currently stands at 3.3%.
March 2021 GDP Forecast | Growth ups and downs projected in the first two quarters point to an uncertain recovery in 2021
17 March 2021

The real GDP growth rate amounted to -11.5% year-on-year for January 2021. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2021 remained unchanged, at -5.4%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q2 of 2021 puts GDP growth at a positive 11%.
February 2021 GDP Forecast | National, global vaccination efforts, resumption of travel and trade are key to Georgia’s economic recovery in 2021
15 February 2021

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020, and their estimated growth stands at -6.5%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2020 amounted to -6.1%, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than our recent prediction. Economic activity fell sharply due to global pandemic, although the decline was mitigated by the relatively strong fiscal stimulus and lending.
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