Indexes
May 2021 GDP Forecast | Tourism decline was main driver of 2020 negative growth. Will it drive the recovery in 2021?
24
May
2021
ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the second and third quarters of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2021. The Q1 growth stands at -4.2%, which is 1.2 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast.
ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021 stands at 12.2% -up from 11% in April. The third-quarter growth forecast currently stands at 3.3%.
Notably, our econometric model depends only on the retrospective information (past observations), thus, an abnormally large negative growth of the real GDP during the second wave of strict government restrictions causes overestimation of the contraction in the first quarter and growth in the second quarter of 2021.
Consequently, the annual growth in 2021, from March data, is expected to be 3.9% in the worst-case scenario, and 4.3% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 4% increase in real GDP.
Recent Publications
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October 2024 | Economic indicators for georgia's growth: august 2024 gdp boosted by lending expansion and trade gains
25
October
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.6%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to August 2024 reached 10%.
September 2024 | Georgia sustains robust growth outlook: strengthened external sector and expanded lending drive economic momentum
23
September
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.5%, respectively. As a result, the average real GDP growth from January to July 2024 was 9.7%.
July 2024 | Strong growth forecast persists despite May 2024 trade decline, remittance drop, and lari depreciation
22
July
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for May 2024, which stands at 9.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 8.4%, which is 0.6 ppt higher than the previous estimate. As a result, the average real GDP growth for January - May 2024 reached 9.3%.
June 2024 | Resilient GDP growth forecast despite trade and remittance challenges in April
24
June
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for April 2024, which stands at 11.8%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.
May 2024 | Economic growth stays strong despite risks: export/import drops, remittance challenges, and low inflation
24
May
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for March 2024, which stands at 8.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.
