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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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July 2019 GDP Forecast | Georgia’s economy in May: So far so good, but the “Gavrilov effect” is not in the data yet
08 July 2019

ISET-PI’s growth projections for the second and third quarters of 2019 were revised upward by less than 0.1 percentage points. They now stand at 4.8% and 7.5% respectively. Geostat has increased the estimate of the average real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2019 to 4.9% (by around 0.2 percentage points).
June 2019 GDP Forecast | Current account deficit shrinks, as exports, tourism and remittances show strong growth in April
10 June 2019

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 has not changed and stands at 4.7%. The first estimate of the third quarter growth forecast is at 7.4%. The real GDP growth rate reached 5.1% year-on-year for April 2019. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first four months of 2019 amounted to 4.8%.
May 2019 GDP Forecast | Georgian economy exhibits relatively strong growth at the start of the year. Inflation remains low, while short-term consumer credit declines following tougher lending
13 May 2019

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019. The Q1 growth stands at 4.7%, which is only 0.4 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019 stands at 4.7% - up from 4.6% in April.
April 2019 GDP Forecast | No credit, no party! Can improved external statistics (except FDI!) and increased volume of deposits still guarantee stable growth?
08 April 2019

ISET-PI’s forecasted real GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2019 remain at 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively. Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 4.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 4.1%.
March 2019 GDP Forecast | Will improved CA balance and planed capital investments outweigh pessimism and lack of credit? We’ll see!
11 March 2019

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.
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