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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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November 2023 | Remittances dip as one-time impact expires, money supply sustains growth, marginal contraction in credit expansion, and inflation approaches zero
11 December 2023

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for September 2023. The estimated growth stands at 5.1%, while the average real GDP growth for January-September 2023 reached 6.8%.
October 2023 | Balancing acts: Georgia's trade deficit shrinks, remittances wane, and inflation holds steady, while consumer credit and money supply surge
23 October 2023

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for August 2023. The estimated growth stands at 5.8%, while the average real GDP growth for January- August 2023 reached 7%.
September 2023 | Georgia’s growth forecast soars on exchange rate appreciation and remittance data
25 September 2023

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for July 2023. The estimated growth stands at 5.5%, while the average real GDP growth for January-July 2023 reached 7.2%.
April 2023 | Business and consumer confidence indicators diverge, reflecting uncertainty facing the Georgian economy
01 May 2023

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2023. The estimated growth stands at 5.8%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2023 reached 7.1%.
March 2023 | Money transfers from Russia grew by more than thousand percent over the year, driving significant appreciation of the Lari
27 March 2023

As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2023 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%. ISET PI’s second forecast for Q2 of 2023 puts GDP growth at a positive 1.6%.
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