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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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September 2016 GDP Forecast | Lari appreciates against partner currencies, but persistent dollarization may be hurting growth
30 September 2016

Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.
July 2016 GDP Forecast | Growth forecast edges upward following revised Q1 statistics from geostat
28 July 2016

The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
June 2016 GDP Forecast | Early seasonal tourist inflow increases incomes and (dollar!) savings
20 June 2016

Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.
May 2016 GDP Forecast | March data shows remarkable stability of economic indicators
30 May 2016

The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2016 was revised downward from 5.0% to 4.2%. Our first prediction of GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2016. The Q1 growth rate stands at 2.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points below the forecast.
April 2016 GDP Forecast | Lari interest rates climb, as banks try to attract long-term savings in national currency
20 April 2016

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.
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