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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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April 2015 GDP Forecast | Little relief
11 May 2015

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 0.5% to 2.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has also revised upward from 1.6% to 4.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP growth estimate for February 2015, it stands at 4.9%.
March 2015 GDP Forecast | Low growth rate is guaranteed in the first half of the year
08 May 2015

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 3.6% to 0.5%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at a low 1.6%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP growth estimate for January 2015, and similarly to our forecast, it stands at 0.5%.
February 2015 GDP Forecast | No surprises related to yearly growth
08 February 2015

With the release of the December data, the year 2014 is now “officially” over. ISET-PI has updated its forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2015; meanwhile, official rapid estimates of both fourth quarter and annual growth rates for 2014 became available from Geostat.
January 2015 GDP Forecast | High hopes for robust growth continue despite a difficult November
08 January 2015

Based on the November data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 3.6% to 3.9%. The second forecast for the first quarter of 2015 increased from the initial 3.2% to 3.7%.
December 2014 GDP Forecast | The Georgian economy looks forward to a robust growth result for 2014
11 December 2014

Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%. We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%. Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.
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