CCI declines further. After a small decline in the Consumer Confidence Index in January, the downward trend continued further in February – the CCI dropped from -15.5 in January to -17.7 in February (by 2.2 index points). On this occasion, the two sub-indices diverged in different directions: while the Present Situation Index increased by 1 point, the Expectations Index decreased by 5.3 points.

Consequently, the overall downward trend resulted from a decline in expectations. Namely, a relatively high decrease was seen in expectations regarding future price levels, where in February almost 70% of consumers believed that prices would continue to rise during the upcoming year (in January this indicator stood at 58%). One driver potential behind this trend might be the news that the Russian Federation is banning exports of gasoline for six months, starting from 1 March.

Moreover, more consumers are hesitant about making major household purchases within the upcoming year. The share of respondents who think they will spend less on such purchases this upcoming year in comparison to last year increased from 34% in January to 43% in February.

Tbilisi vs the regions. While the CCI has increased for the Tbilisi population (by 2.3 index points), it worsened for those in the rest of Georgia (by 5 points). It seems that the spike in expectations that the CCI saw in December (a significant rise derived from heightened expectations throughout the rest of Georgia) only had a short-term effect.

Note: Starting in July, the CCI underwent minor shifts in methodology. Specifically, the questionnaire was slightly modified, in terms of how questions were formulated when conducting a survey.